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The EUR/USD pair bounced off the "bullish" imbalance 12 and reversed in favor of the European currency, just as I had warned. Thus, traders received yet another bullish signal that allowed them to enter long positions in the market. Let me remind you that the chart analysis has almost perfectly predicted price movements over the past few weeks. First, a signal was formed at imbalance 11, then the target in the form of a weekly imbalance was reached. A reaction followed from that imbalance, followed by a correction into the nearest bullish imbalance and a new buy signal. Therefore, this time I expect the euro to move above the high of the week before last.
Overall, there is little more to add to the chart picture beyond the key points. Buy signals are forming regularly, giving traders opportunities to trade rather than sit on the sidelines. The fundamental background continues to pressure the U.S. dollar and bearish traders, which is why any buy signal has an execution probability of 80% or higher. Last week, the dollar felt relatively stable for one simple reason—the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports were postponed to the following week. And once that "next week" began, selling of the dollar immediately resumed.
The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact. A bullish signal was formed at imbalance 11, and shortly afterward another bullish signal appeared at imbalance 12. Thus, traders can once again keep long positions open. This time without specific pattern-based targets, as I see no point in aiming for targets that date back five years.
The fundamental background on Monday was essentially absent. Therefore, no one can say that a report was released or that Trump (Lagarde, Bailey, Powell—pick the right one) made a speech that caused traders to rush into buying the euro. Everything is much simpler: imbalance zone 12 did not allow bears to push the price lower, so bulls once again went on the offensive. This week, bulls may further build on their success, as the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports continue to weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar.
Bulls have had more than enough reasons for a new offensive for the past 6–7 months, and each week their number only grows. These include the dovish (in any case) outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, the autumn "shutdown" (which lasted a month and a half), and the new "shutdown" that occurred in early February. Add to this U.S. military aggression toward certain countries, criminal prosecution of Powell, the "Greenland confusion," and deteriorating relations with Canada and South Korea. As a result, further growth of the pair, in my view, looks entirely logical.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The fundamental background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, so I do not even try to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered finished. Bears would need to push the price down about 500 pips to reach it, and I believe this task is impossible under the current fundamental background and the current chart picture, which shows no bearish patterns at all. The nearest upside target for the euro was the bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, formed back in June 2021. This pattern has now been fully filled. Above that, two levels can be identified—1.2348 and 1.2564. These levels correspond to two peaks on the monthly chart.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On February 10, the economic calendar contains two events that are unlikely to save the dollar. The impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the formation stage of a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the fundamental background continues to favor bulls, bears have launched attacks regularly in recent months. Nevertheless, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.
From imbalances 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8, and 9, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw a certain degree of growth, and the bullish trend persisted. Last week, a new bullish signal was formed from imbalance 11, once again allowing traders to open long positions with a target at 1.1976. That target has been reached. Today, another bullish signal was formed at imbalance 12, giving traders a new opportunity to buy the pair. The formal targets are 1.2348 and 1.2564.
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