02.02.202600:55 Analisis Forex & Kajian: American Dollar. Weekly Preview

The American dollar will once again be the main driver of the entire currency market. There will be plenty of economic news next week, and 2026 has accustomed us to the fact that Donald Trump also regularly surprises the markets. Therefore, even economic events alone will be enough to prevent both instruments from stagnating. And if we add political factors to them...

But let's not speculate about Trump. Only the US president knows what he will announce this time. I am sure that even his closest circle cannot always predict his statements. As for economic events, I advise focusing on the ISM business activity indexes in the services and manufacturing sectors (to be released on Monday and Wednesday), the ADP labor market report (Wednesday), the JOLTS report on job openings (Tuesday), the unemployment reports, and Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday), as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (Friday).

Undoubtedly, the key events are Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, but the last FOMC meeting took place last week. Before the next Fed governors' meeting, these reports will be released once again. Therefore, Jerome Powell and his colleagues will analyze two sets of data to make a decision. However, the decision will depend not only on economic indicators but also, for example, on a "shutdown." Economists believe that a new "shutdown" will not last long, but I would not be so certain. If it drags on for several more weeks, the Fed may extend its pause due to a lack of statistical data.

In addition, the market is focused on the legal investigation against Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook. Trump has not abandoned his intention to dismiss both to ensure neither annoys him further within the FOMC. American courts are not the fastest in the world, but "water wears away stone." During Trump's first presidential term, he only threatened and criticized, but now he is doing everything to restructure the FOMC committee.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach the 25 figure. At this moment, I believe that the global wave 4 has completed its formation, so I expect further increases in quotes. However, I also expect a downward wave in the near term, as the series of waves a-b-c-d-e also appears to be complete. Soon, my readers may want to look for benchmarks for new purchases.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe that a corrective wave or wave set may begin to form soon, after which the upward trend will likely resume. Consequently, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new purchases. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of reaching $1.45-$1.50. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar. All of his actions have a dual positive effect: a weaker dollar and the resolution of internal, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often entail changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement, nor can there ever be. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.