14.01.202600:52 Analisis Forex & Kajian: New tariffs from Donald Trump

This week can already be considered busy and rich in fundamental events. I have already written about such extraordinary events as the inflation report and the charges against Jerome Powell. However, the market continues to show complete disinterest in such news. The "president of the whole world" — the USA's Donald Trump — continues to reshape the world in his own image. At the beginning of the new year changes affected Venezuela, Europe, and now Iran.

I recently wrote about the revolution in Iran. For several weeks, the country has seen mass unrest and protests against the authorities, and literally on Monday, the Iranian rial fell to... zero. You heard correctly: the Iranian rial is now worth nothing, and for one US dollar you can get a suitcase of Iranian money. I have already discussed all the twists and turns in Iran over recent years and decades, so I will briefly recap the essence of the problem.

The country's current authorities have been unable to solve economic and social problems. The Iranian people are forced each year to face a declining standard of living, which was already extremely low ten years ago. And this is not about available credit or free education. I am talking about basic human needs, which not every resident of Iran can meet. Over the past three years, mass protests have become a calling card of Iran. People in this country strike over any reason, because if you have nothing, you will ask for everything. The authorities, clearly displeased with the pogroms, protests, and outright rebellions of the population, are using harsh measures to suppress the uprising. Iran's hospitals are overflowing; according to official information, hundreds have been killed by security forces.

Here, Trump has again taken the stage, fully "supporting" the Iranian people and ready to strike state and military facilities if the authorities shoot at peaceful civilians. In general, the condition is already met, as demonstrations are indeed suppressed in this way in Iran. As a result, Trump's pressure on Iran is increasing again; a revolution is in full swing there.

However, Iran has allies. Or at least trade partners. Through its trading partners, the authorities receive money into the treasury that allows them to remain in power. Trump decided to stop this. On Tuesday, the US president announced that tariffs of 25% will be immediately imposed on all countries that trade with Iran.

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets of the current trend segment may extend to the 25th figure. The current upward wave set may be complete, so a decline is expected in the near future. The trend segment that began on November 5 may still take a five-wave form, but for now, it is, in any case, a corrective wave.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of wave 4 appears complete, as does wave 4 as a whole. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume construction, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets near 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% of the Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its construction, so in the near future, a downward wave or a set of waves may form.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.