09.01.202619:17 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.54 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. A second test of 157.54, when the MACD was in the overbought zone, led to the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2 for the dollar; however, the price failed to decline, resulting in losses being locked in.

In the second half of the day, the release of several key economic reports is expected. The focus will be on employment data, the unemployment rate, and changes in hourly earnings. In addition, representatives of the Federal Reserve are scheduled to speak. New labor market figures will serve as a benchmark for assessing the state of the U.S. economy and, consequently, for decision-making by the Federal Reserve. An analysis of nonfarm employment data will help evaluate the pace of the labor market's recovery after the recent slowdown. Employment growth exceeding forecasts would indicate the resilience of the economy and its ability to create new jobs. A combination of strong U.S. data would lead to another wave of growth in USD/JPY.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry level around 157.82 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 158.45 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.45, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). A continuation of the trend supports expectations for further growth in the pair.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 157.55 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.82 and 158.45 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 157.55 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.93 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today in the case of weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 157.82 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.55 and 156.93 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.