24.12.202509:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Stock market on December 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ maintain upside momentum

Yesterday, stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.16%.

The MSCI All Country Index reached a record high, as data indicating the fastest growth in the US economy in two years bolstered corporate profit prospects. On Wednesday, the MSCI All Country World Index rose for the fifth consecutive day, increasing by 21% since the beginning of the year. The Asia-Pacific stocks index increased by 0.2%, largely driven by technology companies. However, trading volumes are expected to be relatively low today, especially with the Christmas holidays approaching.

The rise in commodity prices was even more pronounced: gold climbed above $4,500 per ounce for the first time before partially retracing its gains. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has recently increased due to the US blockade on oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Platinum and silver also reached record levels, while copper surpassed $12,000 per metric ton for the first time.

Risk appetite remained intact as the year comes to a close, even though stronger-than-expected US economic growth data reduced expectations for a near-term cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Following earlier concerns about inflated valuations of technology stocks in light of the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will demonstrate robust profit growth in 2026.

If consumer demand holds up throughout the holiday season and the fourth quarter, it should positively impact US GDP and corporate earnings. However, despite the US economy maintaining growth momentum through mid-year, fueled by strong consumer demand, the government shutdown in October-November is expected to negatively affect growth in the fourth quarter.

In other market segments, Treasury bonds saw slight price increases ahead of a seven-year bond auction, while the dollar index fell for the third consecutive day. The dollar is heading toward its worst annual performance in eight years, with fewer and fewer reasons for buying it. Yesterday, Trump stated that he expects the Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates. This is the latest indication that the president is seeking a candidate committed to reducing borrowing costs, as the announcement regarding his replacement for Jerome Powell approaches next year. Currently, the market assigns less than a 13% probability to a rate cut by the Fed in January.

From a technical standpoint, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. Achieving this will signal further growth and open the door to a swing up to a new level of $6,930. Additionally, a priority for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,946 mark to strengthen their positions. In the event of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,896. A break below this level could quickly drive the trading instrument back down to $6,883 and pave the way to $6,871.