08.12.202515:30 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for December 8th (U.S. Session)

Trade review and guidance for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1662 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Today's surge in German industrial production became a factor allowing the euro to maintain its leading position against the U.S. dollar. Actual figures far exceeded even the boldest analyst expectations, strengthening investor confidence in the stability of the European economy. According to the data, growth reached 1.8%, compared with a forecast of only 0.3%. At the same time, despite today's success, specialists view the new data with caution. Many economists emphasize challenges still facing German industry, including the global economic environment, the political situation in the region, and decisions by the European Central Bank regarding monetary policy.

Later in the second half of the day, the only event will be the release of U.S. factory orders data, which is unlikely to provide significant support for the U.S. dollar. This is due not only to the expected modest growth but also to prevailing pessimism among traders regarding the dollar. Concerns about the Fed's anticipated soft interest-rate policy form the basis of most of the dollar's current problems. However, if U.S. factory orders show an unexpectedly sharp rise, the dollar may temporarily strengthen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mostly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro once the price reaches the level of 1.1660 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1700. At 1.1700, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point movement from the entry point. You can expect strong euro growth if U.S. data turns out weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1646 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1660 and 1.1700.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1646 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong statistics appear.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1660 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1646 and 1.1614 can be expected.

Explanation of the Chart Elements:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.