03.12.202500:38 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Markets Shift Focus to Important Events This and Next Week (Likelihood of Renewed Declines in Bitcoin and USD/JPY)

The markets are experiencing a slight corrective decline amid expectations for the release of key inflation indicators and the Federal Reserve meeting results, both to be announced on December 10.

According to the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, there is an 87.2% probability that the U.S. central bank will once again cut the key interest rate by 0.25% this year, bringing it to a range of 3.50-3.75%.

Yes, investors have already factored this possibility into their calculations. Major U.S. stock indices have recently nearly compensated for the decline in the third quarter of last month, although they have not yet recovered to their previous historical highs, stopping just short.

Is there potential for further growth?

I believe that if the main message from the Fed meeting indicates a hint at continuing rate cuts in 2026 against the backdrop of a challenging economic situation in the U.S., demand for stocks will noticeably increase again, as the U.S. stock market is currently the most attractive for foreign capital seeking safe havens from geopolitical upheaval.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market may resume its decline after a local rebound, continuing to deflate the bubble that was inflated earlier this year. In this scenario, a further drop in Bitcoin's value, for example, to this year's March low of 74,420.00, can be anticipated.

In the Forex market, the U.S. dollar has "hung" at its ICE index in a narrow range of 99.00-100.25 points. The effects of both supportive and negative factors are compensating for each other, which is why its remarkable stability has persisted since the beginning of November this year.

A similar pattern is observed in the price movement of spot gold, which has clearly shown a reduction in upward momentum amid the likelihood of achieving peace in Ukraine.

What can we expect in the markets?

I believe the overall sideways trend, with a slight correction, may continue until the publication of the personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday, and then until the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting.

Forecast:

Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency is trading against the dollar just above the support level of 85,730.00 in anticipation of this week's ADP employment report and the PCE inflation indicator. The selling level for the cryptocurrency pair may be marked at 85,260.00.

USD/JPY

The pair is above the 155.80 support level. A weakening of the dollar's position could lead to a fall below this mark and to a decline to 154.45. The selling level can be marked at 155.49.