24.11.202501:16 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Euro Currency. Weekly Preview

Another week of attempts and struggles. This is how the upcoming week for the European currency can be characterized. I remind you that in the short term, the EUR/USD instrument built a five-wave corrective structure and could have started forming an upward wave set a week ago. However, instead of the quite logical and expected growth, we again saw a decline. As a result, the anticipated wave 2 of the new trend section takes on a highly elongated appearance (although it does not conflict with the current labeling), and the entire labeling may be complicated once more. In the long term, the anticipated wave 4 could have completed back in August, as it already took on a three-wave, classic appearance. But instead, it continues to complicate further.

The news background cannot be said not to help the euro currency. Instead, the market constantly interprets it in ways unfavorable to the euro. Even without considering the most global events, such as the "shutdown" or the easing of FOMC policy, the economic data are weak enough to weigh on the dollar. Therefore, even if the news background is favorable for growth, it does not follow that this growth will occur.

Among the economic events in the European Union, I can highlight two speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, as well as a series of reports in Germany, including retail sales, unemployment rate, and inflation. There will be very few important events, as Lagarde's speeches have long ceased to elicit any market reaction, and the German reports will only come out on Friday and cannot be considered more important than the European ones.

Consequently, the market will again closely watch the American news background, but it may also trigger movements quite different from what everyone expects. I remind you that the dollar continues to rise, despite growing "dovish" expectations in the market and rising U.S. unemployment.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis conducted for EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The current trend section may extend to the 25th figure. At this time, the formation of an upward wave set may continue. I expect that from the current positions, the third wave of this set will begin to form, which may be either with or 3. In the coming days, I am considering long positions with targets around the 1.1740 mark, and a reversal of the MACD indicator upwards will confirm this signal.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with the upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become increasingly complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect that the main section of the trend will resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. In the short term, it is possible to expect the formation of wave 3 or c with targets located around the 1.3280 and 1.3360 marks, which corresponds to 76.4% and 61.8% of Fibonacci.

Basic Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out, as they often bring changes.
2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.