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Gold has slightly rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, but is still trading below the $4000 per ounce mark. A sharp rate cut by the committee will serve as another catalyst for gold's rise, as it will weaken the dollar.
The anticipated move by the Fed is likely to unleash a new wave of interest in the precious metal, traditionally seen as a reliable hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. In a context of declining bond yields, gold becomes a more attractive asset for investors seeking safe havens for their capital. However, it is worth noting that the gold market remains influenced by numerous factors beyond the Fed's decisions. Geopolitical tensions, the state of the global economy, and changes in the sentiment of central banks and investors can significantly impact prices.
Despite the significant sell-off over the past few days, the market correction has not shaken optimistic sentiment toward gold. At the London Bullion Market Association conference in Kyoto, participants stated they expect the price of gold to reach $4980-5000 by October 2026, approximately 27% above the current level.
This bold forecast is based on several fundamental pillars. Firstly, the ongoing geopolitical instability, with echoes from various parts of the world, makes gold an attractive safe-haven asset for investors seeking to protect their capital from unpredictability. Secondly, increasing concerns about inflation, amplified by substantial liquidity influx from central banks, drive gold prices up, as it is traditionally viewed as a means to preserve purchasing power during currency devaluation periods.
Additionally, it is essential to note the growing demand for gold from central banks, particularly in developing countries seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar. This trend is likely to continue in the future, providing long-term support for precious metal prices.
Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4008. This will allow targeting $4062, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The most distant target will be the area of $4124. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $3954. If successful, a break below this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $3906 with the prospect of reaching $3849.
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