28.10.202508:28 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 28

The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and other risk assets. The lack of U.S. statistics affected the U.S. dollar, and the upcoming FOMC meeting intensified the reluctance to open new long positions.

In recent weeks, traders have shown noticeable caution regarding the dollar, awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy. The uncertainty surrounding inflation rates and economic growth prospects in the U.S. creates a basis for a more accommodative policy, which is impacting the U.S. dollar. The Euro, conversely, demonstrates relative resilience despite ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone, supported by expectations of the European Central Bank's continued wait-and-see stance.

This morning, the GfK consumer climate index for Germany will be released. However, one should not underestimate the significance of this indicator for the European economy. The GfK index is an important indicator of consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy and often serves as a precursor to future household spending. Despite its relative modesty compared to other macroeconomic data, changes in the consumer climate index can influence euro dynamics. Positive values, indicating consumer optimism, typically support the euro, while negative data may lead to its weakening.

As for the British pound, there are no UK reports scheduled for release today, giving buyers every chance to continue the pair's upward correction, which could even signal a new bullish market.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it would be best to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy should be employed.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of 1.1675, which may lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1700 and 1.1726.

Sell on a breakout of 1.1646, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1621 and 1.1602.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of 1.3370, which may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3390 and 1.3416.

Sell on a breakout of 1.3350, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3318 and 1.3287.

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buy on a breakout of 152.10, which may lead to a rise in the dollar towards 152.45 and 152.84.

Sell on a breakout of 151.85, which may lead to a decline in the dollar towards 151.55 and 151.10.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1673 and a retracement below this level.

Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1648 and a retracement back to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3374 and a retracement below this level.

Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3336 and a retracement back to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

Look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.6575 and a retracement below this level.

Look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.6552 and a retracement back to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.4004 and a retracement below this level.

Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3974 and a retracement back to this level.