10.10.202519:14 Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Friday, for the second day in a row, the GBP/JPY currency pair is under pressure from sellers, retreating from the July 2024 high reached earlier this week around the 205.30 level. The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's leadership election of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) paved the way for her to become Japan's first female prime minister and fueled speculation about a more expansionary fiscal policy. This weakened expectations of an immediate rate hike by the Bank of Japan, creating significant pressure on the Japanese yen earlier in the week. At the same time, Takaichi emphasized that she does not intend to allow a sharp weakening of the yen. Combined with verbal warnings from Japan's Finance Minister Kato, who stressed the importance of exchange rate stability and promised close monitoring of volatility, this provides some support for the yen and eases pressure on GBP/JPY.

Meanwhile, Takaichi's economic advisors, particularly Etsuro Honda and Takuji Aida, expressed the view that the new prime minister will likely approve another rate hike in December or January. Inflation in the country has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for more than three years, while the economy continues to grow. This creates conditions for further monetary tightening and supports demand for the yen.

In addition, a cautious market mood strengthens the yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency, adding further pressure on the GBP/JPY pair rate. At the same time, the downward potential of the pair is limited by expectations that the Bank of England will keep the interest rate at 4% until the end of the current year, given signs of accelerating inflation and strengthening economic activity. This could support the British pound and contribute to stabilization of the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, despite the fact that prices rolled back by almost 50% after such a sharp rise, this does not mean that the pair is ready for a broad decline. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and have moved away from the overbought zone. The 9-day EMA remains above the 14-day EMA, confirming a positive outlook.

However, if prices fail to hold above the 202.00 level and fall to the 201.00 level, the situation will shift in favor of the bears.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today. The yen showed the greatest strength against the New Zealand dollar.