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The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction.
However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic.
As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to rationalize illogical price movement. When the market stalls despite a strong fundamental and macro backdrop, it means that market makers do not wish to trade. Only they can explain why. Our job is to acknowledge the facts: there were virtually no movements in the market, and fundamental data had no bearing on it.
Nor can the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. be entirely blamed. Historically, shutdowns never bode well for the U.S. economy, as confirmed by all previous occurrences. It is reasonable to expect the dollar to come under pressure as a result.
And when you factor in the weak labor and business activity data, it becomes clear that the dollar should've experienced significant losses last week.
Still, we don't believe the market ignored the dollar due to another bout of U.S. economic uncertainty. In fact, new layers of uncertainty are typically seen as good reasons to sell a currency. Above, we listed only the most recent catalysts for dollar weakness. Let's not forget that, in the coming years, the Federal Reserve may be the only central bank actively cutting rates. Donald Trump may continue imposing tariffs arbitrarily on other countries and entire sectors. And central banks globally have already begun reducing their dollar reserves. In short, the dollar has little to no reason to grow. A government shutdown, moreover, is a very clear event, which should have triggered a dollar sell-off.
As such, last week's price behavior was completely illogical. And more accurately, it was almost nonexistent. We expect that all ignored factors will eventually be priced in, once the market breaks out of its current coma. Currently, movement remains stagnant, particularly on the lower timeframes.
We advise against shorting EUR/USD, even if the price is moving lower. Of course, every trader has their own perspective and approach, and nothing is impossible in the markets. However, it's very difficult to justify buying the U.S. dollar when it has no fundamental support whatsoever.
The average volatility for EUR/USD over the last five trading days as of October 6 is 57 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1684 and 1.1798 on Monday. The higher linear regression channel continues to point upward, indicating the uptrend is intact. The CCI indicator previously entered overbought territory, triggering the latest downward correction.
The EUR/USD continues to correct; however, the overall trend on higher timeframes remains bullish. The American dollar is still under intense pressure from Donald Trump's policies, and he shows no signs of slowing down. The dollar rallied for about a month, but now seems poised for a renewed wave of long-term decline.
If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1684 and 1.1658 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain valid with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in continuation of the prevailing uptrend.
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