31.03.202519:55 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 31st (U.S. Session)

Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test of 1.0820 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I didn't sell the euro and stayed out of trades during the first half of the day.

The recovery in retail sales in Germany indicates some resilience in consumer spending, despite the inflationary pressure still present in the country. However, this positive momentum was not enough to provide long-term support for the single currency, which, after a brief upward surge, returned to its opening levels.

In the second half of the day, apart from the release of the Chicago PMI, no other significant economic data is expected, which theoretically sets the stage for a potential rise in the euro. However, keep in mind that reciprocal tariffs from the US take effect in two days, and we are likely to hear more comments from Donald Trump on this matter. So the Chicago PMI alone, despite its questionable importance, is unlikely to shift overall market sentiment dramatically.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching the price area of 1.0834 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0872. I plan to exit the market at 1.0872 and reverse to selling the euro from there, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. Euro growth today can only be expected after weak US data and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0810 price level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0834 and 1.0872 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0810 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0772, where I plan to exit the trade and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move from the level. Pressure on the pair may return if Trump adopts a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0834 price level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0810 and 1.0772 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be lost very quickly, especially if you're not using money management and are trading with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.