31.03.202511:02 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 31

Bitcoin and Ethereum resumed their decline over the past weekend. There was no significant growth last week either, suggesting a continued correction in the crypto market. Ethereum was hit particularly hard. Another failed attempt by Bitcoin to hold above the $82,600 level triggered a sell-off during Monday's Asian session. Ethereum fared even worse—after several unsuccessful attempts to break above $1,818, pressure on the asset returned. It is now trading at around $1,800.

Last week, capital inflows into spot BTC ETFs slowed significantly. Spot ETH ETFs, on the other hand, continued to experience outflows. Investors are exercising caution and reassessing their positions amid macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations surrounding the future monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Net inflow into spot BTC ETFs amounted to +$196.4 million, down from +$744.3 million the previous week. Net outflows from spot ETH ETFs totaled –$8.7 million, compared to –$102.9 million the week prior.

This risk aversion is also driven by increased volatility in the crypto market following a failed technical attempt to re-enter a bull market. Some analysts suggest a further correction may occur after Bitcoin's unsuccessful rapid rally, discouraging new investments in ETFs.

Despite this, long-term prospects for cryptocurrency assets remain positive. As the crypto industry evolves and new technological solutions are adopted, interest from institutional and retail investors in spot ETFs is expected to return, driving capital inflows and price support.

As for intraday strategy, I will continue to act based on significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting the medium-term bullish trend—still intact—to continue developing.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at the $82,600 entry point with a target of $84,100. Around $84,100, I will exit long positions and open a short trade on a pullback. Before entering a breakout buy, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $81,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below that level, with a reversal back toward $82,600 and $84,100.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at the $81,600 entry point with a target of $80,300. Around $80,300, I will exit short positions and open a long position on a bounce. Before entering a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $82,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, with a reversal back toward $81,600 and $80,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the $1,818 entry point with a target of $1,872. Around $1,872, I will exit long positions and sell on a pullback. Before entering a breakout buy, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $1,790 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, with a reversal back toward $1,818 and $1,872.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at the $1,790 entry point with a target of $1,737. Around $1,737, I will exit short positions and open a long position on a bounce. Before entering a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $1,818 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, with a reversal back toward $1,790 and $1,737.