28.02.202514:12 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Adjustment of Levels and Targets for the U.S. Session on February 28th

Due to cautious market sentiment following yesterday's comments from Donald Trump and a major sell-off in risk assets, there was little notable activity in terms of trades during the first half of the day. The British pound nearly provided an entry point under the Mean Reversion strategy, but a reversal did not materialize.

Disappointing economic data from Germany and France weighed on the euro earlier in the day. This negative trend highlights persistent weakness in consumer demand in the eurozone's largest economy, adding pressure on the single currency. Traders also fear that declining consumer activity could further delay the region's economic recovery, which, as reflected in yesterday's reports, is already struggling. Additionally, expectations of future ECB rate cuts continue to dampen enthusiasm among euro buyers.

This afternoon, the focus will shift to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key indicator for U.S. inflation trends. A higher-than-expected reading could trigger a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, as it would suggest that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Alongside this, data on consumer spending, personal income, trade balance, and the Chicago PMI index will serve as the final macroeconomic events of the week. Weak figures could erode the dollar's strength.

If the economic data is strong, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market fails to react decisively, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.0405 could push EUR/USD towards 1.0415 and 1.0450.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.0385 could drive the pair down to 1.0355 and 1.0330.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.2600 could lead to an advance toward 1.2630 and 1.2720.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.2575 could trigger a decline to 1.2530 and 1.2480.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 150.50 could push USD/JPY towards 150.70 and 151.30.
• Selling on a breakout of 150.20 could accelerate losses toward 149.60 and 149.30.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.0415 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.0374 and returns above it.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.2615 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.2560 and returns above it.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 0.6235 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 0.6197 and returns above it.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.4455 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.4423 and returns above it.