14.02.202517:00 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 14th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.0466 price level in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed a valid entry point for buying the euro, resulting in a price increase of about 20 points.

News that the Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter and slightly exceeded economists' forecasts triggered euro purchases in the first half of the day. However, traders remain cautious due to uncertainty about inflation and the European Central Bank's future actions. Despite the growth in data, it remains minimal, and more substantial drivers are needed for a stable economic recovery.

In the second half of the day, we expect retail sales and industrial production data from the U.S. for January. If the data disappoints, the euro will continue to rise, but I don't expect a strong upward movement toward the end of the week. If the statistics turn out to be strong, the chances of the euro falling will be much higher.

For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro at 1.0477 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.0515. I plan to exit the market at 1.0515 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. The euro can rise today if U.S. retail sales data turns out to be weak.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0454, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to 1.0477 and 1.0515 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0454 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0424, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point retracement). Selling pressure on the pair can return at any time.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0477, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to 1.0454 and 1.0424 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – target price for taking profit or manually locking in gains, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – target price for taking profit or manually locking in gains, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to monitor overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't follow money management principles and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.