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4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 117п – 163п – 222п – 104п – 99п.
The average amplitude over the past 5 days: 141p (132p).
The British pound on Wednesday, September 26, is trading with minimal volatility before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, unlike the EUR/USD pair. There is a minimal dollar advantage, but it is insignificant. No new information on the topic of Brexit for Wednesday at the disposal of traders has been reported. Thus, the markets are fully focused on the upcoming performance of Jerome Powell. The key rate is likely to be raised to 2.25%, but these markets can no longer be surprised. Most likely, if the rate is not raised, it will cause a wave of disappointment, and the dollar will be put under pressure. It is also very likely that the rate will be raised, but instead of strengthening the dollar, we will see a backlash, as the tightening of monetary policy can already be taken into account by the markets. Given the fact that there is a trade conflict between China and the United States, which will necessarily affect the economies of both countries, the topic of raising the rate may go to the background or be ignored altogether. This point should be taken into account when opening any positions during the outcome of the Fed meeting and the press conference. From a technical point of view, everything is ambiguous, as the price is near the critical line and can easily gain a foothold above it, which changes the trend of intraday to an ascending one.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair continues to adjust against the dead cross. Overcoming traders Kijun-sen can provoke the resumption of an upward movement and in this case will become relevant longs with targets 1.32 and 1.3296.
Shorts can be opened after the current correction with a target of 1.3014. Signalling its completion can turn the MACD indicator downwards. However, until the publication of the results of the Fed meeting, it is not recommended to open any transactions.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chinkou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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