21.10.202614:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: SpaceX and Tesla weigh merger — what it means for Bitcoin?

SpaceX shares jumped by roughly 9% to $161 in premarket trading after Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla are exploring a possible combination. Bitcoin, by contrast, traded around $83,300 — the crypto market barely reacted. Why mention Bitcoin then? Both companies hold meaningful Bitcoin reserves. According to bitcointreasuries, SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, and Tesla holds 11,509 BTC — a combined 30,221 BTC, worth roughly $2.5 billion at current prices.

According to Musk, each company has formed special committees of independent directors to evaluate a potential deal. Musk himself is not part of those committees because he directly owns about 36% of SpaceX and 19.8% of Tesla. He described the process as a strange kabuki theater in which two groups talk while he is not involved. "Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes. But at the end of the day, the shareholders have to be supportive of this," Musk said. He also stressed that the committees have not agreed on any deal terms.

The market reacted to the earnings as much as to merger chatter. SpaceX reported revenue of $14.58 billion versus a $12.7 billion consensus and EPS of $0.35 versus $0.15 expected. CapEx was $19.59 billion, of which $16.44 billion was allocated to artificial intelligence spending.

Attention now turns to Tesla, which reports after the close today. Street estimates call for $28.13 billion in revenue and $0.44 of adjusted EPS. If a merger happens, the companies' Bitcoin holdings would simply be consolidated on one balance sheet. No one has suggested the immediate buying or selling of the coins in the materials released so far.

My view is that this news is unlikely to move Bitcoin materially in the near term. Deal terms are not agreed, shareholders must approve, and the process will likely be protracted. For BTC, the Fed meeting on October 28 and Iran-related headlines matter more. I expect Bitcoin to trade in a roughly

81,000–83,800 range, and the merger talk will be fodder for conversation rather than a price driver.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a return to $85,400, which would open a direct path to $87,100 and then toward $89,000 — a break above which would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers to step in near $82,800. A decisive close below that area could quickly push BTC toward about $80,900. A deeper target on an extended sell-off would be around $78,800.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,508 would open a straight path to $2,600. The next upside target is roughly $2,679; clearing that would confirm strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, look for buyers near $2,417. A break and hold below that level could rapidly drive ETH toward about $2,339. A further downside target would be around $2,274.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance zones where the price is expected either to slow or to accelerate.
• Green: 50-day moving average.
• Blue: 100-day moving average.
• Light green: 200-day moving average.

Crosses of — or tests by the price of — these moving averages typically either halt moves or set the next market impulse.