13.10.202609:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Where to Sell and Buy the Yen: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 13

Review of trades and trading tips for the Japanese yen

A price test at 158.68 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose only about 10 pips, and that was it.

The yen found itself on the losing side. After Beth Hammack's remarks, the dollar rose, and USD/JPY received additional support, yet the pair failed to hold weekly highs today. The Cleveland Federal Reserve president said that returning inflation to 2% will require restrictive policy and backed this with data. Core PCE in August reached 3.4% versus 2.7% a year ago, and core (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.0% from 2.9%. For the yen, the key takeaway is that the Fed sees no reason to rush. The labor market is stable — unemployment at 4.2% — and Hammack judged rising yields as not yet making financial conditions tight. That gives the US currency extra resilience. Despite today's intraday pullback, I believe the yen will remain under pressure while Fed policy stays restrictive.

Today's Japan data were weaker than expected, yet the yen was undeterred. In the Asian session, it strengthened against the dollar despite disappointing figures. Bank lending growth in September was 5.3% versus a 5.5% forecast, and the second lending metric came in at 5.7% versus the expected 5.8%. More notable was price data: corporate goods PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month versus an expected +0.5%, and year-on-year it slowed to 6.8% from 7.6% (consensus expected it to hold). That result suggests price pressure in the Japanese economy is easing, which usually weakens the case for BoJ tightening. The most interesting thing is that the market barely reacted—the yen continued to strengthen versus the dollar, and the weak numbers didn't stop that move.

For the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Scenarios to buy

Scenario 1: Buy USD/JPY today near 158.39 (green line on the chart), targeting 158.66 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.66, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip reversal from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 158.20 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expect moves to the opposite levels 158.39 and 158.66.

Scenarios to sell

Scenario 1: Plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 158.20 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a swift decline. Sellers' key target is 157.95, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Sellers can return at any moment—you only need a hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 158.39 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward the opposite levels of 158.20 and 157.95.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.