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The GBP/USD pair has continued to attract buyers for the third consecutive day, fluctuating near the 1.3250 level while remaining within a range that has persisted for three weeks.
The recent slight decline in US Treasury yields from multi-year highs has prompted US dollar bulls to adopt a more cautious stance, providing an important source of support for GBP/USD. Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister John Healey has once again reaffirmed his commitment to strict fiscal discipline ahead of the release of his first budget on October 28. This has also provided additional support for the British pound and the GBP/USD pair.
However, traders may prefer to wait for Healey's speech at the upcoming annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok, scheduled for later today. Market participants should also closely monitor speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve representative Kevin Warsh, both scheduled for Friday. Other key factors for GBP/USD include the release of the UK's monthly GDP report and the latest US inflation data.
On the other hand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty stemming from tensions between the United States and Iran may limit potential losses for the US dollar, which continues to serve as a safe-haven asset. Rising tensions in the Middle East became evident on Sunday, when a senior Iranian official described Washington's response to Tehran's proposal to resume shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz as inadequate.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is considering further military action against Iran. This may discourage traders from opening aggressive bearish positions against the US dollar, particularly given reduced liquidity due to a US public holiday, and could limit further gains in GBP/USD. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained recovery in buying activity and a breakout beyond the short-term trading range before concluding that the pair has bottomed out and opening positions in anticipation of further gains.
The price action observed over the past three weeks can be characterized as a bearish consolidation phase. GBP/USD is trading below all major moving averages, further confirming bearish pressure. Oscillators are in negative territory, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. To ease the bearish pressure, buyers need to push the pair beyond the current range and above 1.3260. The 1.3200 psychological level provides support, along with the zone below it extending to 1.3180. A break below this area could accelerate the decline toward the June low.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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