07.10.202609:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Tehran Won't Let the Market Relax

Oil climbed: Brent rose toward $102/bbl after a volatile Tuesday session, and WTI holds above $90. Although flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expanding, attacks on vessels are intensifying.

Recent data show attacks have indeed become more frequent. A UKMTO report says there have been at least nine incidents in the strait so far this month — about half of all attacks recorded in Hormuz and the Persian Gulf during September. U.S. Senator J.D. Vance recently said Tehran is striking some vessels but not enough to stop oil and gas flows. At the same time, he said Washington remains open to a deal and is negotiating with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. For the market, this means risk and hope for a deal coexist, and prices trade in a narrow range between the two.

Flows are rising. Shell's CEO said supplies from the Middle East have recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels, and Vitol's head reported about 12 million barrels per day left the strait over the past seven-to-ten days.

But global stocks are dwindling. Industry leaders warn that spare options to cushion the war's impact are running out, world inventories are being drawn down, and refined-product prices — including diesel — remain high.

The near-term event is an IEA meeting to discuss an emergency release plan of up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel pledged by the G7. Market participants expect the meeting to clarify the sequence of action. Latest American Petroleum Institute data showed crude inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week and gasoline stocks declined while distillate stocks rose; official U.S. data are due later today.

Policy action is also nudging prices. Reports say Donald Trump is weighing suspending the federal gasoline tax to ease costs ahead of the midterms, and earlier this week he loosened rules on diesel use to let haulers buy fuel normally reserved for agricultural use. These measures offer only limited relief at the pump: retail diesel was near $6/gal in September.

My view: the next sessions should trade roughly in a $99–$103 Brent range, with the key drivers to watch tonight being the Federal Reserve minutes and inventory reports.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $92 to target $96, above which a breakout would be difficult. The farthest target is $100. On the downside bears will try to seize $89. If they do, a range break would seriously damage bulls and push oil toward $87, with a prospect of reaching $83.