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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Monday — what would you have guessed? — and this time the market did not even wait for the European or American sessions to resume buying the US dollar. The sell-off in EUR/USD began overnight and continued through the day. Soon the current rally will no longer fit on the charts...
On Monday, the market found a new reason to buy the US currency and latched onto it with all its might. The US labor-market failure and Friday's unemployment print are already forgotten. Weakness in the labor market, which greatly reduces the probability of Federal Reserve tightening, is dismissed as nonsense. The Fed will keep raising the key rate anyway. Why? Because. If not in October, then in December. Such reasoning now prevails in the market. By contrast, the war in Yemen — which has been going on for more than ten years (as has Iran's conflict with much of the world) — is an event. Yesterday the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which cannot even stay in the capital Sanaa because the Houthis occupy it, announced the start of a military operation to oust and destroy the Shiite movement. What does this mean for the FX market and the world? Only that another military conflict has appeared on the political map, one that could become a full-scale, protracted war potentially involving other states.
The crux of the Yemen conflict is the proximity of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which the Houthis have repeatedly threatened to block. Recall that the Houthis are allied with Iran. Thus, Iran doesn't need to give an order to block Bab el-Mandeb — the Houthis can do it themselves at any time, and then the global oil market could lose another roughly 15% of supply. You can imagine what oil would cost then.
Why is the dollar rising on this news? First, higher geopolitical risk forces investors to flee the Middle East again. Because the dollar is the easiest way to protect capital, demand for the US currency rises, pushing the dollar higher. Second, the market no longer needs strong reasons to buy dollars. The dollar rises for any and no reason — but when there is a reason, the dollar rises with certainty. In our view, even if the Yemen conflict had not flared, the US dollar would still have remained in demand, because the market today does not consider whether there are sound reasons to buy the dollar. The main thing is to find any pretext to buy the currency that is already rising and thus is likely to yield speculative profit. Over the past month we have not seen a single meaningful correction. Ask yourself: were the fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical backgrounds really so unambiguously in favor of the dollar to justify a month-long rise? We believe they were not. But the movement is now inertial; it needs no reasons or foundations.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 6 is 82 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1127 and 1.1291 on Tuesday. The higher linear-regression channel has turned sideways, indicating another trend change. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area three times and formed three "bullish" divergences, which warn of the end of the illogical downtrend. However, the market is not responding to technical signals.
S1 – 1.1169
S2 – 1.1108
R1 – 1.1230
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1353
The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, but we still view the pair's decline as a correction before a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitical events first, and then the Fed's "hawkish" stance, provided strong support to the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider shorts with targets of 1.1169 and 1.1127. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant, with targets of 1.1353 and 1.1414.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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