30.09.202616:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 30 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test of 1.1344 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1334.

Germany released its data in the first half of the day, and the figures were mixed. Unemployment stood at 6.4%, in line with the forecast — in other words, the labor market showed no signs of concern. Retail sales, however, were disappointing: growth of 1.3% instead of the expected 2.0% indicated that domestic consumer demand has not yet gained sufficient momentum. Despite this, the euro strengthened against the US currency. I believe the moderate macroeconomic data were perceived as a neutral background rather than a reason to sell the euro.

For the euro, the second half of the trading session will be determined entirely by US developments. The final estimate of US GDP for the second quarter at 1.5% is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market by itself — it is a revision, and the likelihood of a surprise is relatively low. The ADP figures will be more interesting: an expected increase of 70,000 in employment would represent a noticeable acceleration. If the data meet or exceed expectations, the dollar will receive support and EUR/USD will come under pressure. The main test for the single currency, however, will be the core PCE index for August. The Federal Reserve considers this indicator its most representative measure of inflation, and an increase above 0.3% could sharply change market sentiment.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1363 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1382. At 1.1382, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can be expected after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1352 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1363 and 1.1382 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1352 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1332, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1363 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1352 and 1.1332 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further upside above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further downside below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally preferable to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.