16.09.202613:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 16 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

Due to low market volatility, the price did not reach the levels I indicated during the first half of the day.

The key event of the day will be the FOMC decision, and a rate hike to 4.0% appears almost inevitable against the backdrop of a series of strong macroeconomic reports in recent weeks. However, Kevin Warsh's press conference will be no less important: the tone of his comments will determine whether the market interprets today's move as a one-time measure or as the beginning of a new round of monetary tightening. I believe that a clear signal in favor of further rate hikes could provide the dollar with sustained support. For the yen, such a development would be particularly significant against the backdrop of the end of currency interventions and the clearly cautious stance of Japanese authorities. If Warsh confirms that the Fed is prepared to continue tightening monetary policy, the yield differential between the dollar and the yen could widen further, increasing interest in carry trades and pushing USD/JPY higher. The only factor that could limit this scenario is the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting: if the central bank unexpectedly raises its rate tomorrow by more than forecast, the pair would have to price in the convergence of the two central banks' monetary policies much more rapidly, which could limit the dollar's further upside against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 155.31 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.13 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.13, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 154.98 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 155.31 and 156.13 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 154.98 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.88, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 155.31 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.98 and 153.88 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.