03.09.202607:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump vows Iran campaign will be short as tensions push oil higher

As is well known, this week, Donald Trump launched a "new military campaign" against Iran. It appears the US president has abandoned talk of an economic blockade, as markets received no follow-up on that front over the past week. The proposed financial squeeze never gained traction: most of Iran's trading partners are US rivals or unwilling collaborators, and there is little prospect that China will fall in line.

Instead, Trump returned to kinetic action and resumed strikes on Iran—a move he described as justified after Iran attacked two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. On Wednesday, the president said the new campaign would not last long. He argued that Iran has been developing new missile systems and trying to restore targets destroyed by earlier US strikes and that the US military is denying Tehran the ability to rebuild and field new weapons.

Trump also claimed US forces had destroyed all the new equipment Iran was attempting to deploy along the Strait, both defensive and offensive systems, and warned that they are ready to strike again at any moment. It is worth recalling that six months ago Trump likewise described the operation as a "two-week" affair.

The president went on to suggest the Strait of Hormuz belongs to the United States and even proposed renaming it the "Trump Strait." He suggested that, now the Strait is under full US control, it might be better to rename it the "Trump Strait" and said it would be better than ever. The comment drew ridicule and pointed to a broader pattern: Trump routinely frames international order as something the United States alone can define.

Given all this, a question looms: if Trump is serious about annihilating Iran, why has he not done so already? Is it a shortage of munitions, or is this merely a strategy of perpetual rhetorical pressure? If the latter, the credibility of Trump's threats is clearly eroding. Tehran has vowed retaliation and said it will make the United States pay for its most recent attacks, so further escalation appears likely. Brent crude is again edging toward $100 a barrel, and geopolitics is once more supporting the dollar.

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EUR/USD analysis, September 3. Market in no rush to draw conclusions

Wave analysis of EUR/USD

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude the instrument remains within a local uptrend segment—the first wave of a new larger bullish phase. The trend that began in January could evolve into an A-B-C-D-E corrective shape; if so, further declines would reach targets below wave-C's low at 1.1325. I treat that as an alternative scenario. My base view is that a new multi-month upswing began in June that will take the euro back toward the 1.20 area.

Wave analysis of GBP/USD

The wave structure for GBP/USD is reasonably clear but could become more complex. The charts show a completed A-B-C corrective structure, which suggests the start of an impulsive, upward wave sequence. However, uncertainties in the EUR/USD wave count raise the possibility that the euro could form a five-wave downleg; if that materializes, GBP/USD might fall toward the 1.31 area, and the British wave count would need to be revised.

Core principles of my analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible; complex structures are hard to trade and change frequently.

2. If you are not confident in what the market is doing, it is better to stay out.

3. There is never 100% certainty in direction—always use protective stop-loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.