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US stock indices closed lower: the S&P 500 fell by 0.33%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.70%. The primary driver of the sell-off was a radical reassessment of expectations regarding US monetary policy following Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Traders sharply raised the probability of a Fed interest rate hike at the September meeting to 65%, up from 34% before the speech, responding to the regulator's statement about its intent to firmly maintain the inflation target at 2%.
This abrupt shift in monetary expectations spurred a sell-off in government securities worldwide. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.77%, while Japanese 10-year bonds reached 3% for the first time since 1996. Investors are demanding increased compensation for risk amid persistent inflation, high government spending, and extensive corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure development. Follow the link for more details.
September is set to be a defining month for global markets, as regulators from major economies prepare for simultaneous interest rate hikes. The swaps market fully anticipates a rate increase by the European Central Bank at its meeting on September 10, with a 92% probability for a similar move by the Bank of Japan and a 98% chance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This synchronized wave of tightening monetary conditions by global regulators is reshaping currency trends and applying pressure on precious metals, keeping gold around $4,425 per ounce.
Moreover, the commodity sector continues to be influenced by geopolitical factors. Brent crude prices surged locally to $91.55 per barrel amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East, before partially retracing that increase. The combination of central bank actions and escalation in the Middle East creates a broad window of opportunities for trading commodity instruments and currency pairs at InstaSpot. Follow the link for more details.
The cryptocurrency market experienced one of its strongest Augusts ever, breaking the traditional pattern of seasonal declines. Over the month, Bitcoin soared by 25.3%, fully recovering from the prolonged spring-summer correction, while Ethereum exhibited even more impressive dynamics, gaining over 32%. This current performance places the past month alongside rare historical exceptions like the record rally of 2017, confirming a return of significant capital into digital assets.
The catalyst behind this robust bullish momentum was a combination of fundamental factors: the US Treasury's decision to double its purchase of long-term bonds, record institutional inflows into spot ETFs, and increased regulatory optimism in Washington. At this stage, buyers are preparing to challenge the nearest resistance levels. Follow the link for more details.
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