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Bitcoin has surged by $17,000 and continues to rise. The price has easily surpassed the only bearish pattern on the daily timeframe and is now confidently moving toward the trend break line. A sell signal has not formed, so the bearish FVG pattern now becomes a bullish IFVG. However, it is noteworthy that neither Ethereum nor Bitcoin has broken their downward trends that began last year. Therefore, regardless of how sharp and strong the current rise is, one should count the chickens in the autumn. In any case, no trading signals have been formed in recent days, and all movements appear to be just another pump.
In the meantime, well-known crypto critic Peter Schiff has reported that artificial intelligence is already creating problems for Bitcoin and may slow the development of the first cryptocurrency. Schiff believes that AI will continue to draw a significant share of investor capital away, negatively impacting the prospects for "digital gold." He also noted that most Bitcoin supporters try to present the AI sector as a favorable factor, but in reality, it is not. Artificial intelligence represents a threat to Bitcoin. According to Schiff, Bitcoin and AI will compete for capital as well as for electricity and computational power. He also mentioned that potentially more advanced AI agents could find vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's code that are not visible to the average person.
From our perspective, the AI sector is already posing serious competition to Bitcoin. There is not only capital flowing into the stocks of companies associated with the development of artificial intelligence, but miners are also transitioning into the AI sector. Thus, we do not expect a new bullish trend for Bitcoin in the near future, and the recent upswing can be classified as a classic pump. By the way, the downward trend has not been broken, and there is a high probability of forming a sideways trend on the daily and weekly timeframes.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line is located at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) was formed. Only above this level can it be said that the downward trend has ended. The last and only bearish FVG was completely pierced through and transformed into a bullish IFVG. Thus, this area now serves as a POI for long positions. Bitcoin has not yet broken the downward trend, but in recent weeks, the chances of the bearish trend concluding have sharply increased. This cannot be denied.
On the 4-hour timeframe, it is clear how Bitcoin has literally skyrocketed. Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe at this time has little meaning, as the movements are too strong. Therefore, signals should be sought on the daily or even weekly timeframes.
Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend, despite the strong growth this week. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), although this level has already been tested. However, we do not consider this downward trend to be over. The last bearish FVG pattern has been invalidated, and there are essentially no POI areas for short positions on higher timeframes. However, on the weekly timeframe, the current rise can be classified as a correction. We understand that the current rise in the leading cryptocurrency bears little resemblance to a correction, but this does not make a compelling argument for opening long positions. The current movement resembles pricing without the formation of patterns and signals. Each trader must decide for themselves whether they want to open positions "in thin air."
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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