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The GBP/USD pair showed no notable movement on Monday and even declined, continuing its downward correction. At the end of last week, the price bounced off the area of 1.3671-1.3681, suggesting a downward correction. The lack of significant macroeconomic data and fundamental events in the first half of the week may lead the British pound to continue its gradual decline toward a critical line, with volatility likely to remain low until the market receives truly important information. None is expected on Tuesday. In principle, only a new war in the Middle East could help the dollar in the current situation. And it must be said that this is quite possible. Donald Trump intends to increase pressure on Iran. Still, instead of an economic blockade, he might initiate a new trade war with China, which is the main importer of Iranian oil. In any case, the conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of ending, but it may expand geographically. For the dollar, the worse the geopolitics, the better. There is no hope for other factors.
From a technical standpoint, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly timeframe, as indicated by the trend line. In the long term, the pair is in a sideways channel and could resume the global upward trend seen in 2022. Thus, the pound could easily rise another 100 pips. The direction of future movements will depend on whether the market is prepared to resume this global four-year trend. We believe it is ready.
In the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Monday, and the price did not approach any important lines or levels throughout the day. Therefore, there were no grounds for traders to open trades yesterday.
COT reports for the British pound show that, for several months now, non-commercial traders have dominated the market with sales. The net position is negative despite the long-term upward trend being maintained. Considering events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for the dollar has been quite high in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Only geopolitics can support the U.S. dollar in the near future. However, until the price settles below the trend line, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair.
In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Trump's policy, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price has recently interacted with this line and has bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 18), the "Non-commercial" group opened 12,100 BUY contracts and 10,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, as indicated by the trend line and the Ichimoku indicator lines. In the long term, the British pound continues to head upward. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price settles below the trend line. However, even getting to the trend line will require effort from the dollar. No global factors for the growth of the American currency are currently observed.
On August 25, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3501) and Kijun-sen (1.3596) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss order to break even when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, there are no significant events or publications scheduled in the UK or in the U.S., and only a few absolutely secondary reports will be released. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to throughout the day, and volatility may be low again. It seems that "boring Monday" will smoothly transition into "boring Tuesday."
Today, traders may consider maintaining short positions with targets at 1.3588-1.3596 based on the signal generated last Friday. Long positions can be opened on a bounce from the 1.3588-1.3596 area, targeting 1.3671-1.3681.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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