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Today, at the start of the new week, the GBP/USD pair is showing interest from buyers on the pullback, returning to the August high marked last Friday. Moreover, the current overall sentiment to sell the US dollar creates favorable conditions for bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the pair remains upward.
Last week, the published US inflation data showed a weakening in price pressures. Additionally, the data released on Friday showed that US retail sales decreased by 0.6% in July, marking the largest monthly decline since May last year and signaling a slowdown in consumer spending. Traders reacted quickly to these numbers and lowered their expectations for an immediate rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Accordingly, these expectations are keeping dollar bulls from opening aggressive buy positions, thus providing a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
On the other hand, the British pound is receiving support from an optimistic UK GDP report released last week, which showed 0.3% growth in the economy in June. This places the UK at the forefront of the strongest economic growth among G7 countries in the first half of 2026. However, in the second quarter, the UK economy's growth rate slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%. Nonetheless, the data confirms the need for at least one rate hike from the Bank of England in 2026, creating a positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair in the short term.
Analysts from MUFG/BTMU note that "the pound continues to perform well this year," indicating that it has become the most successful of the major currencies in August, with the GBP/USD rate surpassing 1.3500 again. They added that the pound has received support from new evidence showing that the UK economy has proven more resilient to the negative impacts of energy prices driven by the conflict between the US and Iran. This reinforces the optimistic outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
However, the standoff between the US and Iran maintains geopolitical tension, which, alongside inflation risks tied to oil price fluctuations, helps limit further losses for the US dollar.
To take advantage of better trading opportunities, traders can wait for the release of UK employment data and consumer inflation, expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Additionally, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday may provide new momentum for the GBP/USD pair and increase volatility in the latter half of the week.
From a technical standpoint, the pair aims to overcome the August high. The next objective will be the round level of 1.3600. The 9-day EMA provides support near the round level of 1.3500. The table below shows the percentage change in the value of the US dollar against major currencies today, with the dollar showing the greatest strength against the Canadian dollar.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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