13.08.202611:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: DXY: analysis and forecast. Why has the US Dollar Index stalled at the round 100.00 level?

Today, on Thursday, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of other currencies, continues to struggle to clear the psychological 100.00 mark, remaining within a range that has held for almost two weeks while awaiting a new catalyst for the next meaningful move.

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index report showed continued disinflation in July. This followed a weak US nonfarm payrolls report published last week, prompting traders to further pare back expectations for an imminent interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. That scenario continues to exert downward pressure on the DXY.

Nevertheless, market participants remain cautious about inflationary risks arising from oil price volatility amid the conflict between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump says the US fully controls the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran insists on retaining its control over the strategically important waterway. This adds geopolitical tension and fuels expectations of Fed tightening, which in turn supports the dollar and pressures the DXY.

For better trading opportunities today, watch the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) release due during North American trading hours. In addition, remarks from influential FOMC members and further developments in the Middle East could boost demand for the US dollar. At the same time, current conditions call for caution among aggressive bearish traders.

From a technical perspective, the index remains above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), confirming a moderate bullish bias. However, a sustained break above the round 100.00 level is required to continue the advance. Otherwise, a drop below that level could weaken bullish sentiment, although buyers may re-enter on a pullback toward the 100-period SMA.