12.08.202609:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stock market on August 12: S&P 500 and NASDAQ close mixed

Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.48%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34%.

Asian indices rose, while US futures also recovered slightly, driven by strong tech earnings that brought investors back into the AI trade. The Kospi index, a barometer of AI investment sentiment, surged by 4%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumping by approximately 7%. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.7%, while the Asian tech index gained 2.6%.

Corporate earnings were the primary driver of optimism. CoreWeave surged by 16% in extended trading after robust AI spending fueled stronger-than-expected sales growth. Super Micro Computer gained 7.6% in after-hours trading on a revenue forecast that exceeded analyst estimates. These results helped Nasdaq 100 futures rise by 0.3%, while European stocks are set for a neutral open.

Oil, meanwhile, continued its steady rally amid the negotiating impasse. Brent rose by 0.6% to $89.45 per barrel, extending gains to a sixth consecutive day, its longest winning streak since April. The advance came as the US and Iran, by all appearances, hardened their positions in the long-stalled Hormuz Strait talks, despite Pakistan's defense minister stating that the parties are "close to some kind of agreement."

All this suggests that with each passing day without a resolution, market anxiety is steadily mounting. Traders are increasingly concerned that both sides are making demands that only add complexity and, consequently, reduce the likelihood of a workable deal in the near term.

Caution prevailed in currency and debt markets. The yen was little changed, trading around 159.40 per dollar, with investors closely watching for a move toward the key 160 level, which could trigger fresh intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies. Treasuries stabilized, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding nearly unchanged at 4.69%. Gold recovered from Tuesday's losses, adding 0.7% to around $4,400 per ounce.

Today's main event will be the US consumer price data release. The report is expected to show easing pressure from energy costs following its surge in the months immediately after the start of the war with Iran. According to the median economist forecast, the headline figure will show a 0.1% rise in July following a 0.4% decline the previous month. A softer reading could help ease some concerns after three FOMC members voted against the decision to hold rates steady in July, advocating for a hike.

Regarding the S&P 500 technical picture, buyers' main task today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,737. This would support gains and open the possibility of a push toward $7,756. Equally important for bulls will be maintaining control above $7,774, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend the $7,718 area. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,698 and open the path toward $7,678.