11.08.202604:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. August 11. How Trump Fought in the Middle East

The GBP/USD currency pair showed absolutely no movement on Monday, which, objectively speaking, had no real reason. Throughout the day, there was no significant news other than geopolitical developments. It became known that Donald Trump is ready to make virtually any concessions to Iran just to end the military conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders can now assess how the US president's mood and rhetoric have changed. A few months ago, it was "We've defeated (will defeat) Iran, it is destroyed, Iran will have no nuclear weapons," and so on. Now the sentiment is "We are ready to do anything just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and we even have a missile shortage." The world's first army has shown a complete inability to achieve its stated objectives. And few would dare blame the army itself for this. The failure lies not with the military and its capabilities; it lies in Trump's policies, which are criticized by everyone who has the time to notice.

Initially, it was clear that Iran could not be taken quickly. It is a rather large country located in rugged terrain, living in a state of war under thousands of sanctions for years and decades. The country fully understands where threats may come from and is therefore prepared for them with 100% readiness. Yes, its financial and military capabilities are limited, but at the same time, it is always easier to defend than to conduct an offensive. Trump thought he would launch several hundred or even thousands of missiles at Iran, destroy key infrastructure, and Iran would have no choice but to accept Washington's terms. In reality, Iran has shown that it is ready for a million missile strikes but will not abandon its policy. Iran has demonstrated that the victor in war is not the one with more money or weapons, but the one who holds strong cards and knows where to hit.

Tehran has realized in time that the energy crisis will affect America despite its vast oil and gas reserves. Prices will rise everywhere, and Trump will come under a barrage of criticism from his own electorate due to high inflation and sharply rising fuel prices. America, of course, is the richest country in the world, but that does not mean that only millionaires live there. Thus, for the majority of the population, a 50% rise in fuel prices is a serious blow to their budget. And the question of "who is to blame?" arises for no one. Consequently, preliminary opinion polls have shown a decline in Republican chances of winning the midterm elections in November in at least one chamber month after month. If the Democrats take control of at least the House of Representatives, they will eagerly block any initiatives from Trump that they can. This is how Iran defeats Trump absolutely without military means. And just one card from Iran beats all the cards of the White House.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 47 pips, which is considered "low" for the pound/dollar pair. Therefore, on Tuesday, August 11, we expect price to move within a range bounded by levels 1.3470 and 1.3564. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area twice, which may provoke a new downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550
• R2 – 1.3611
• R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. The year 2026 appears very positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairy tale comes to an end. The weekly timeframe shows a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which supports expecting continued growth of the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3550 and 1.3564 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading downward with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3367 is advisable.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is currently strong;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel within which the pair will remain over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility metrics;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal to the opposite direction is approaching.