06.08.202600:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What Is the U.S. Role in the Deal?

Experts also note that the upcoming agreement on the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz primarily concerns Iran and Oman, rather than the U.S. Tehran has proven that no bombings will break its will or its desire to control the strait. The anticipated agreement implies that vessels will be able to enter the Persian Gulf through Iran's territorial waters and exit through Oman's waters. Additionally, demining of the strait is to begin, and for 60 days, it will remain fee-free. If your tanker hits a mine, well, sorry.

The agreement may also establish financing for Iran without directly charging for crossing Hormuz. Tehran wants to collect tolls from every vessel passing through the strait, while Oman proposes voluntary contributions from each state in the region, which "will be directed toward ensuring the security of the strait." In simple terms, Iran will get its money, but not from shipowners, rather from neighboring states. In principle, such a formulation may succeed. As long as Donald Trump doesn't launch new missiles...

Interestingly, the most compelling aspect is not the unblockade of the troubled strait, but what events will unfold afterward. It is expected that Washington will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports after signing the deal with Oman, but then negotiations over the "nuclear issue" should begin. How the White House plans to negotiate this issue when Tehran refuses to meet in person with the American delegation and is not willing to give up nuclear fuel and ballistic missiles is still unclear. Even the Memorandum of Understanding was perceived by many experts as an "acknowledgment of defeat." Even the document from June 17 contained far more "perks" for Iran than for the U.S. The new document could be even more favorable for Tehran, as Washington has no strong cards in the negotiations—other than the "missile hammer."

For some time, there were rumors that Trump might opt for a ground operation, but most military experts believe that this would not just be a venture, but suicide. Trump might consider such an operation only if he has nothing left to lose...

Based on all of the above, I do not believe that Trump will simply back off from Iran, withdraw his troops and navy from the region, and try to sell the unblockade of Hormuz to Americans as a victory. I do not think that the conflict in the Middle East will end so easily and simply with a deal between Iran and Oman...

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward portion of the trend, while in the shorter term, it is within the downward portion of the trend. In my opinion, this is a good time to try to form long positions, but the instrument may still drop to the 13 figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often presents surprises, so I would currently be adjusting toward buying.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become quite complex. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while for EUR/USD, five waves may be constructed. Consequently, the British pound may build another downward wave, as with the euro, but this wave could be the second in a new upward trend. Thus, the discrepancy in the wave counts for the euro and the pound will exist, but it will be insignificant. Based on this, the pullback may continue for some time, after which I expect the formation of wave 3 of the new upward trend, with targets around the 37-38 level.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade; they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.