05.08.202609:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 60 Days Without Fees: Details of the Upcoming Agreement Between the U.S., Iran, and Oman Regarding the Strait

Oil prices plummeted following reports that the U.S. and Iran could conclude a temporary agreement on the Strait of Hormuz as early as today. President Trump stated that the parties had a very productive day of negotiations, and the outcome could be known within 48 hours. Trump's phrasing that the strait "will soon be opened" became the main trigger for the price decline, although he immediately added a warning: if an agreement cannot be reached, Iran will receive "the heaviest blow."

According to Axios, the details are becoming quite clear. The U.S., Iran, and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day temporary agreement. The mechanism for passage through the strait is proposed to be bilateral: vessels will be able to enter the Persian Gulf through Iran's territorial waters and exit through Oman's waters in coordination with Tehran. The financial aspect of the deal is also significant: no maritime fees or tariffs will be charged, removing one of the main sticking points of recent months, as Iran has repeatedly insisted on the right to charge for vessels passing through waters it controls.

The agreement also includes a more long-term perspective. During the first 30 days, the parties plan to clear the central shipping corridor and begin preparations for a permanent agreement. This is a crucial point: the 60-day temporary deal is intended not as an end in itself, but as a transitional phase toward a comprehensive and sustainable agreement, and the demining of the central corridor should serve as a physical, not just diplomatic, confirmation of de-escalation.

The structure of the agreement, combining immediate normalization of shipping with the threat of renewed strikes in case of a breakdown, reflects a pattern characteristic of the entire history of this conflict: periods of diplomatic progress have invariably been accompanied by parallel military threats intended to maintain pressure on Tehran right up to the moment of signing. The next 48 hours, designated by Trump himself as the timeframe for clarifying the situation, will be crucial in determining whether today's optimism translates into a real agreement or the conflict returns to the familiar cycle of escalation and negotiations.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $76.30. This will set the target at $78.70, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be in the $80.51 range. In the event of an oil price decline, bears will attempt to take control at $73.79. If successful, a breakout of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $71.69, with the potential to reach $69.58.