06.07.202600:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Price Analysis. Forecast. British Pound Maintains Weekly Growth

Before the weekend, the British pound showed stability against the US dollar and ended the week at the same level. Despite increasing investor doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will decide to raise interest rates at the September meeting.

The current situation in the U.S. labor market remains stable, despite the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for June coming in below forecasts. Moreover, the statistics for April and May were revised down; in total, 74,000 fewer jobs were created over those two months than previously expected. Traders' reaction to this news shifted rate hike expectations to October rather than September.

The new Fed head, Kevin Warsh, while not providing specific forecasts about future monetary policy, reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to combating inflation. In the coming week, market participants should closely monitor the FOMC meeting minutes ahead of the next U.S. inflation report, scheduled for July 14.

In addition to the minutes, important indicators of inflation and the labor market will include the ISM Services PMI. It is expected that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 will increase from 215,000 to 219,000.

In the UK, political uncertainty has weighed on the pound, which is now at levels seen in mid-June and remains below the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3400.

Although Andy Burnham confirmed adherence to current budget rules, investors are cautious. Meanwhile, The Independent reported that he is considering tax incentives to help young people purchase their first homes.

Regarding other data, the UK services PMI from S&P Global fell again in June from 49.3 to 48.8 points, related to a decrease in new orders, declining for the fourth consecutive month. The report discusses ongoing cost pressures and a decline in consumer demand.

In the upcoming week, speeches by Bank of England representatives and the publication of the financial stability report are also scheduled, which could impact the market.

Expectations regarding interest rate changes from both the Fed and the Bank of England remain on the agenda. According to Prime Terminal data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 is estimated at 46%.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is trading below key simple moving averages (SMA). One of these is at the round level of 1.2400, while the next converges around the mark of 1.3409, limiting short-term gains. As a result, the recent rise appears more like a corrective rebound within a continued limited movement. The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is around 52, indicating a moderate improvement in momentum; however, this is insufficient to overcome pressure from the aforementioned resistance levels.

Support is located at the 20-day SMA, while significant support lies at the June low around 1.3150. A confident break of this zone would open the way to a deeper pullback, despite the current moderately positive momentum.