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On Monday, the euro is posting moderate gains against the U.S. dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair has so far failed to establish a firm foothold above the psychological 1.1400 level, while the 13-month low near 1.1320 remains within close reach. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, along with investors' cautious stance ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data, is limiting the euro's recovery.
According to the latest reports, the United States and Iran have agreed to halt hostilities that disrupted the fragile ceasefire over the weekend. However, the status of the peace negotiations remains unclear. Iranian officials have reported talks with Oman regarding the administration of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. Navy has raised the threat level in the region to "significantly high," adding to investors' concerns.
Today's key event on the economic calendar is a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the opening of the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. However, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of the release of U.S. labor market data, which could provide greater clarity on the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1400, showing a corrective rebound from the 13-month low near 1.1320, while the broader bearish trend remains intact. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering from oversold territory. At the same time, both oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that sellers continue to hold the advantage.
The pair remains below the former support level around 1.1430, where the 9-day EMA is located, preventing a move toward 1.1500—the lows recorded on June 8 and 11—as well as the 20-day SMA. It also remains below the significant resistance level between 1.1620 and 1.1660, which repeatedly capped bullish attempts in May and June.
On the other hand, the nearest support is located at the previously mentioned 13-month low around 1.1320. If the decline continues, sellers may attempt to test the late-May 2025 low at 1.1210.
The table below shows today's percentage change in the euro against the major currencies. The euro posted its strongest gains against the Japanese yen.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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