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The price test at 161.69 came at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero level, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test at 161.69 triggered the implementation of Scenario #2 to sell the dollar; however, the pair did not experience any significant decline.
The dollar continues to rise stubbornly against the Japanese yen, clearly inviting currency interventions from the Bank of Japan. Today, data was released regarding retail sales growth in Japan for May, which increased for the third consecutive month, driven by significant wage growth and government subsidies aimed at reducing the cost of living. On Monday, the Ministry of Economy reported a 1.9% increase in sales after a revised upward forecast in April. This figure surpassed all economists' estimates. Compared to the same period last year, sales increased by 5.3%, while the consensus forecast was 3%. All this indicates that price pressure in the country will persist, forcing the BoJ to act more aggressively regarding interest rates. However, these news did not affect the strengthening of the yen.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 161.88 (green line on the chart), aiming for a move to 162.07 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 162.07, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 161.73 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to opposite levels of 161.88 and 162.07 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the level of 161.73 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.51, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment, needing only any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 161.88 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 161.73 and 161.51 is expected.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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