26.06.202605:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on June 26? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Only in the U.S. will the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index be released today, and it is unlikely to provoke a noticeable market reaction. And importantly – a logical one. Let's recall that a strong U.S. GDP report yesterday led to... a decline in the dollar. It can be said that a correction in EUR/USD and GBP/USD has long been overdue, but we have not seen one. Instead, for the first time in almost the entire week, when the American currency could have shown a logical rise, it ended in a decline.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

From the fundamental events on Friday, we can note the speeches of European Central Bank representative Boris Vujcic and Federal Reserve representatives John Williams and Neel Kashkari. However, let us remember that two weeks ago, the ECB raised rates for the first time in three years, while the Bank of England and the Fed met last week without making any important decisions. Thus, so soon after, it is unlikely that the sentiment of the central bank representatives has changed enough for us to hear anything new in their speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. have signed an agreement remotely, but too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue" which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the problem that sparked the war and could lead to its resumption in the future. Negotiations on the nuclear deal began over the weekend, and initial progress was achieved. The U.S. lifted sanctions against Iran, unblocked access to its assets, and agreed on a recovery plan. Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices fell to January-February levels. However, none of this affected the dollar's exchange rate.

Overall Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may begin to correct after a strong decline, but if the decline continues, we would not be surprised. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1354-1.1363, and the British pound from the area of 1.3175-1.3180. The market has been buying the American dollar in an absolutely illogical way over the past week, which may be a trap set by market makers for bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.