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The price test at 161.79 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test at 161.79 prompted the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar; however, it did not trigger a significant decline in the pair.
Despite the Japanese authorities' efforts to stabilize the national currency, the yen's decline, which has reached a 40-year low, paradoxically continues. However, this trend of yen depreciation, which may suggest economic difficulties, can, in this context, turn into a significant financial boon. Maintaining the current exchange rate could give a new boost to Japan's automotive industry. A weak yen means that export revenues received in foreign currency become significantly larger when converted back to yen. For Japanese car manufacturers, a large portion of whose products are aimed at global markets, this is a direct source of increased profits. However, the Japanese authorities will likely continue to emphasize the need for stricter policy measures, as the weakening of the national currency is currently causing more harm than good to the economy.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point in the area of 161.84 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 162.07 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.07, I intend to exit my long positions and sell immediately on the pullback (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). It is best to return to longs on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests at the price of 161.73 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. We can expect growth to the opposing levels of 161.84 and 162.07.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 161.73 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 161.51, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips from the level). Sellers may re-enter at any moment; we just need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests at the price of 161.84 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to opposing levels of 161.73 and 161.51.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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