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Throughout the American campaign in Iran, I have repeatedly stated the same point—that Donald Trump will achieve nothing from Tehran through military means. I will not debate here whether Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is good or bad; let world leaders handle those questions, as they are compensated for their roles. I merely state the fact. Trump attempted to carry out a similar operation to the one in Venezuela, but it failed spectacularly. Perhaps this is better than doing nothing if the Iranian nuclear threat is truly as frightening to the Western world as, for example, North Korea's. However, on the other hand, Iran has not shown any aggression like Kim Jong-un, does not threaten the U.S., and has not promised to destroy it.
After two months of military campaigning, it became clear to Trump that nothing could be achieved. Perhaps if the Congressional elections were not looming, Trump's war would have continued for several more months. What would remain of Iran in that case is unknown—probably only the nuclear facilities that are buried deep underground. However, it is evident that even carrying out hundreds of missile strikes would not lead to the decapitation of Iran or compel a country that has resisted the world for 50 years and does not waver from its policies to surrender. Trump's actions only resulted in a significant rise in oil and energy prices, so much so that American voters began openly expressing their dissatisfaction with prices at gas stations and in stores. Trump's political ratings have fallen to record lows, which is not good ahead of the elections.
He had to put on a good face despite a bad game. Trump proclaimed a complete victory over Iran and noted Tehran's agreement to international monitoring of nuclear facilities, conveniently omitting that such a deal had existed since 2015 until Trump unilaterally tore it up. Following this, Washington had to concede amid the restrained smirks of the rest of the world. Iran quickly realized that time was working against Trump, and the closer the elections approached, the more willing the U.S. would be to concede. As a result, various reports indicate that America agreed to reparations, the reconstruction of Iran, the lifting of sanctions, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. It even agreed to abandon the demands for the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear arsenal. In return, Iran committed to minimal obligations—opening the Strait of Hormuz and agreeing to international monitoring by the IAEA. Ultimately, it can be confidently stated that America has lost this war, as it has lost many others. Trump even promised to end the war with Lebanon for Tel Aviv...
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend, while in the short term, it is within a downward segment that may be nearing completion. In my opinion, now is a good time to attempt to form long positions, but the instrument may drop significantly below the 14 range within wave C. If this assumption holds true, it would be wise to wait a bit, at least until wave 5 in C. Moreover, optimistic geopolitics no longer oppose the U.S. dollar.
The wave structure for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. The instrument has currently formed three waves downward, while EUR/USD has also changed, resulting in three waves there as well. Consequently, the pound may continue to decline within wave 5 in C after a minor correction within wave 4. In any case, the downward wave sequence may conclude soon, and the news backdrop does not provide unconditional support for the U.S. dollar. Wave C may soon drop below the low of wave A.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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