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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Wednesday, as if there were peace and tranquility in the Middle East. However, that is not the case. In the Middle East, Iran first attacked an American helicopter, then the US attacked Iranian coastal military facilities, and subsequently Tehran began launching missiles at Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. In this unfortunate situation, we can only wonder how much the market loves the "spaghetti" Donald Trump is serving. The American president has been insisting for weeks that an agreement with Iran is practically signed and that Tehran is willing to export all nuclear fuel and impose a moratorium on uranium enrichment in the future. To be precise, we have been hearing such statements from Trump for two months now, since the temporary truce was agreed upon on April 7. Only in the last couple of weeks has the market stopped believing Trump's words, but it still reacts to practically any events and news concerning the Middle East.
Yes, the market's reaction to geopolitics now is not the same as it was three months ago. The market is currently processing Trump's statements and promises, as well as actual events in the Middle East, with caution. This is precisely what we meant when we repeated for weeks that the geopolitical factor has less influence on the currency market, yet geopolitics still accounts for 90% of currency pair movements. In other words, the market no longer responds to every event, every piece of news, or every statement with 100-point moves, but it still reacts to geopolitical events (with rare exceptions).
What does all this mean for the British pound? Only that we should not expect any significant decline in the GBP/USD pair unless Trump genuinely intends to resume full-scale attacks on Iran. This is exactly what the American leader stated yesterday. He said that the time for signing a favorable peace agreement with Iran has expired and that its acts of aggression this week compel the US to switch to a forceful method of problem-solving. However, yesterday, Trump mentioned the possible resurgence of war, and today, he may announce that negotiations with Tehran have resumed, as "Iran really wants to get an agreement." The rhetoric of the American president can change ten times in a day, and each subsequent statement can contradict the previous one. We believe that traders should have long since gotten used to this and generally stop reacting to Trump's words. However, they are still unable to ignore them completely.
As such, we do not expect a strengthening of either the dollar or the British pound without the resumption of war or the signing of a peace agreement. The market will likely continue to ignore most macroeconomic statistics and fundamental events, except for perhaps the most significant ones.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Thursday, June 11, we therefore expect movements within the range limited by levels 1.3308 and 1.3470. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a potential recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, signaling a possible end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.3367
S2 – 1.3306
S3 – 1.3245
R1 – 1.3428
R2 – 1.3489
R3 – 1.3550
The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the US dollar. However, 2026 is currently looking very positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3489 and 1.3550 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price below the moving average will allow trading on the downside with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3245. Market conditions often change, and the market primarily tracks geopolitical news, which is not uniform.
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel, within which the pair will operate for the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
The CCI indicator: its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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