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The GBP/USD pair attempted to attract buyers but failed to gain traction. Increased interest in the pound was associated with a weaker U.S. dollar following the ceasefire agreement reached between the United States, Lebanon, and Israel. However, the potential for further gains appears limited amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
On Wednesday, Lebanon and Israel, in a joint statement with the United States, announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached following peace talks in Washington. These developments have eased concerns about a broader regional conflict and, consequently, reduced demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, a trend that has been evident throughout the current week. This has become an important factor supporting GBP/USD. Nevertheless, the escalation of military activity in the Persian Gulf continues to sustain geopolitical risks and may limit more significant losses in the U.S. dollar, warranting caution before opening aggressive long positions in the currency pair.
In recent days, the U.S. military reported successfully intercepting several Iranian missiles and drones targeting Kuwait and Bahrain, while also carrying out retaliatory strikes against Iran's Qeshm Island. In response, Iranian forces attacked U.S. military bases in Bahrain. These developments come amid a lack of tangible progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations, as well as ongoing disputes regarding Tehran's nuclear program and security in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further in 2026 could support the U.S. dollar and limit gains in GBP/USD.
Traders may prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest U.S. employment data, commonly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. These key figures will provide additional insight into the future direction of Federal Reserve policy. Combined with further developments in the Middle East, the economic data are likely to influence the U.S. dollar's trajectory. However, the current fundamental backdrop appears to favor U.S. dollar bulls, suggesting that GBP/USD is likely to attract new selling interest at higher price levels.
From a technical perspective, it is too early to discuss bullish prospects until buyers decisively break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To gain control of the market, bulls must also establish a foothold above both the 20-day and 100-day SMAs. For now, negative oscillator readings continue to favor the bears.
The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies today. The U.S. dollar posted its strongest gains against the Australian dollar.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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