21.05.202600:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: ECB Likely to Raise Rates in June

The European currency reacted rather calmly to the inflation data in the Eurozone and to the interview with the head of the Belgian central bank and European Central Bank Governing Council member, Pierre Wunsch.

On Wednesday, the politician provided perhaps the clearest signal in recent times: if the Iranian conflict is not resolved by the June meeting, a rate hike in the Eurozone is practically inevitable.

"At some point, we will have to respond because inflation has already reached 3%," he stated in the interview. Wunsch characterized market expectations of three 25-basis-point increases this year as "reasonable," which directly confirms the market scenario from one of the council's voting members.

It is important to note the context. Wunsch is not the most hawkish voice at the ECB, and at the April meeting, he only slightly supported a hike. The fact that he is now discussing the high likelihood of a June move indicates that the central bank's consensus is gradually shifting. According to him, the conflict has placed the ECB at the forefront of the inflation issue, and this time, unlike in 2022, the markets are unlikely to be caught off guard and may react more quickly. Currently, traders are considering a potential increase in the rate from the current 2% to 2.5%—the upper boundary of the neutral range for the economy.

At the same time, Wunsch tried to maintain balance. He deemed the talk of stagflation premature, characterizing the current situation as a slowdown in growth rather than a recession, and noted that wage trends remain very favorable.

In conclusion, the politician emphasized that the total volume of rate hikes will depend on developments in the Middle East, and some market indicators suggest that the conflict may be resolved sooner rather than later. In other words, the ECB is prepared to act—while keeping space for maneuver.

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to consider how to reclaim the 1.1610 level. Only this will allow for targeting a test of 1.1635. From there, it is possible to reach 1.1660, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the 1.1690 high. If the trading instrument declines, I expect any serious actions from major buyers around 1.1590. If there are none, it would be wise to wait for a drop to the minimum of 1.1570 or to open long positions from 1.1550.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3415. Only this will allow for targeting 1.3445, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3475. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control of 1.3380. If successful, breaking this range will deliver a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3340, with the prospect of reaching 1.3300.