The situation in the cryptocurrency market remains unfavorable for trading and has not changed over time. Over the past week, Bitcoin has simply been stagnant. Despite maintaining a downward trend and a complete lack of signs indicating a shift to a "bullish" market, the corrective growth has continued for almost three months. The nearest "bearish" FVG on Bitcoin's upward path received only a very weak market reaction. Thus, the first important area of interest (POI) for sales was essentially ignored (though the pattern persists). Bitcoin may set its sights on the second nearest bearish FVG, within which we again expect the completion of the correction and the formation of sell signals. Recently, "digital gold" has faced significant challenges despite weak growth.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Ray Dalio explained that Bitcoin is unlikely to be considered a "safe haven." Dalio stated that only gold deserves that title, as Bitcoin cannot claim it due to its high risk, volatility, and lack of privacy. All transactions on the Bitcoin network are recorded on a public blockchain, so anyone can see them at any time. Dalio believes this is precisely why central banks are not eager to establish Bitcoin reserves. Recently, the Swiss central bank rejected a proposal from a group of activists to create Bitcoin reserves, calling Bitcoin too volatile and unstable.
Dalio also noted that Bitcoin closely correlates with technology company stocks. When stocks decline, companies often sell Bitcoin to cover those losses. In his view, gold remains at the center of the financial system because it is widely used and maintains a high level of trust worldwide.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend and a correction against it. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to be over. Given no signs of a trend reversal to the upside, we believe the decline will resume sooner or later. On the daily timeframe, the nearest POI area for new sell trades is between $79,500 and $81,100. This area has been tested twice, and the price reaction to it was very weak. Therefore, it is likely that this pattern will be canceled, and Bitcoin will continue to rise towards the next FVG in the area of $84,900 - $88,800. The liquidity pool below the trend line remains the target for the price. A small bullish FVG has also been formed. The reaction to it may signal the continuation of the correction, allowing traders to open small long positions.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues its upward movement, which is still a correction. The CHOCH line of the current upward structure is at $74,950; a stabilization below this level will signal a trend break to traders. This could be a very important signal for the market regarding a trend change. The end of the upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe could mark the start of a new wave on the daily timeframe. There are still no fundamental grounds for Bitcoin's long-term strengthening.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% level on the Fibonacci from the three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. The only POI area at this time is the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the range of $79,300 - $81,200. It has not been completely canceled yet, but it could soon be canceled. In this case, the POI area for sales will be $84,900-$88,800 (the next bearish FVG). The decline targets remain below the $60,000 level. For long positions, the only bullish FVG on the daily timeframe can be used, but it should be remembered that any growth in the cryptocurrency now is inherently a correction.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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