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Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to hold above the round $4700 level, facing some difficulty in maintaining upward momentum. According to available information, Iran has presented the United States with an updated proposal that involves restoring the functioning of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the military conflict, while discussions on a nuclear deal are postponed to a later date. Such developments increase expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran and simultaneously weaken the US dollar's position as the key reserve currency, which traditionally supports commodity prices.
The rise in optimistic sentiment is putting pressure on oil prices and reducing inflation risks, thereby maintaining the likelihood of at least one 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in 2026. This factor further weakens the dollar and creates favorable conditions for gold. Nevertheless, the combination of current circumstances restrains market participants from actively increasing long positions in XAU/USD, limiting the potential for significant growth.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense: passage is still significantly restricted due to Iranian control measures and a US naval blockade of ports. Additional pressure on the geopolitical backdrop comes from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement ordering intensified military strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. These factors sustain geopolitical risks, limiting declines in oil prices and the US dollar, which calls for a cautious approach to opening new long positions in gold.
In addition, market participants remain cautious ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday. Investors expect to receive further signals regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid persistent inflation and resilient US macroeconomic indicators. The outcome of the meeting will play a key role in shaping demand for the dollar. At the same time, developments in US-Iran relations could increase volatility and set the direction for the XAU/USD pair.
On the physical market, signs of support are also evident: in India last week, due to limited supply, gold premiums reached their highest levels in more than two and a half months. In China, premiums rose to the $9–12 per ounce range compared to $3–6 a week earlier, amid recovering demand and increased buying activity. These factors further strengthen the position of the bulls and point to the potential for further growth, where intraday pullbacks are likely to be bought and remain limited.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a range formed since the beginning of the month, barely holding above the $4700 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, near the neutral 50 mark. The MACD indicator is also close to neutral, signaling consolidation or a potential trend reversal. Below the $4700 support, gold is likely to find support in the $4650–4645 level. Resistance is located around $4750, followed by approximately $4800.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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