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Today, Tuesday, during the first half of the European session, gold continues to post intraday losses, holding below the $4,800 mark, although it is still trading above the weekly lows recorded the previous day.
Market participants remain cautious about the prospects of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran amid ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a naval blockade, US Navy forces detained a commercial vessel flying the Iranian flag in the Gulf of Oman. In response, Tehran once again blocked this strategically important route, supporting oil prices. Rising oil prices, in turn, are boosting inflation expectations and strengthening the US dollar, thereby putting pressure on gold. At the same time, the potential for further dollar gains appears limited due to the decreasing likelihood of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market estimates the probability of a rate cut by year-end at around 45–50%, which limits the US dollar's upside while simultaneously supporting the precious metal.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that Tehran is not prepared to negotiate under threats. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also noted that ongoing violations of the ceasefire by the United States are significantly complicating the diplomatic process. Nevertheless, incoming information suggests that the Iranian delegation still plans to arrive in Islamabad for negotiations. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor news related to US-Iran relations, as it may continue to drive market volatility. An additional factor for Tuesday's trading will be remarks from incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, which could provide new direction for gold prices. However, the current mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution before opening strong directional positions in gold.
From a technical perspective, the precious metal maintains a moderately positive short-term bias, as the Relative Strength Index remains in positive territory. However, signals are mixed, so traders should be cautious in choosing direction. The metal has found support at the 14-day EMA. For further upside, it needs to break above the 50-day SMA near the psychological level of $4,900.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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