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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart has changed. There is still no indication of a cancellation of the upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), which began in January of last year, but the wave structure itself now looks quite ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on simpler, smaller wave structures in order to make short-term forecasts—which is usually sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be highly complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade based on standard "five-three" patterns.
In the chart above, a classic five-wave impulse structure can be identified, with an extended third wave. If this interpretation is correct, then this structure has already been completed, and a corrective sequence of at least three waves is currently forming. Therefore, in the near term, some upward movement can be expected—but within a correction relative to the most recent trend segment. At the moment, recent wave formations do not align well with the higher-level structure, but the situation should become clearer over time. The euro's recovery may end near the 1.1824 level.
The EUR/USD pair once again showed very low volatility on Thursday due to the absence of important news. The only notable event was the final estimate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, which differed little from the preliminary reading. Inflation in the EU accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year in March, while core inflation slowed to 2.3%. The increase in headline inflation over the month amounted to 0.7%. That was essentially the only notable data point of the day.
However, there are less significant but potentially impactful developments. Today, Donald Trump announced that the leaders of Lebanon and Israel will hold their first talks in 34 years on Friday. This means the conflict in the Middle East could ease slightly in the coming days. It is worth noting that more than 10 countries are currently involved in the conflict, but even if just two reach a ceasefire, it would represent continued movement toward a broader resolution. Trump would also add another item to his "list of ended wars." Incidentally, the conflict with Iran—which Trump himself initiated—may also come to an end, adding yet another entry. At this pace, by the end of his presidential term, Donald Trump could potentially bring several conflicts around the world to a close.
Based on the wave analysis, I would suggest that a decline in the pair may begin today or tomorrow—or may have already started. The failed attempt to break above the 1.1824 level indirectly supports this view. The corrective a–b–c wave structure appears complete. However, the duration and strength of any euro decline will depend heavily on geopolitical developments.
Based on the analysis, EUR/USD remains within an upward trend segment (on the higher timeframe), while in the short term it is within a corrective structure. The corrective wave sequence appears complete and would only become more complex and extended if a stable ceasefire is established among Iran, the US, Israel, and all other parties in the Middle East. Otherwise, a new downward wave structure could begin from current levels—or at least a corrective decline, even if geopolitics continue to improve and the current trend segment evolves into a new impulse.
On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is somewhat unconventional, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. Such situations do occur. It is important to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than trying to rigidly label every wave. In the near future, the trend may reverse.
Key Principles of My Analysis
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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