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15.04.202600:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Time Works Against Trump

Rilevanza fino a 15:00 UTC--4

Exchange Rates 15.04.2026 analysis

When Donald Trump initiated military intervention in Iran, he expected the opponent to fall within the shortest time frame and that he would announce another victory. However, in practice, things turned out the opposite. The conflict has now been ongoing for six weeks, and now Trump himself does not know how to end it on favorable terms. The main threat looming over Donald Trump is the congressional elections in November, where Republicans are virtually guaranteed to lose the House of Representatives. The Republican Party can now only compete for the Senate. However, the longer the war in the Middle East continues, the less chance Trump has of maintaining support from at least one chamber of Congress.

I would not be mistaken if I said that the vast majority of Americans are indifferent to the events in Iran. What they do care about are the prices at gas stations and in stores, which have been rising for more than a year under Trump. Initially, the U.S. president decided to collect tribute from all countries through trade tariffs, but it later became clear that the tribute is paid by American consumers, not by the European Union or China. In 2026, Trump aimed to protect the U.S. from Iranian nuclear missiles; as a result, the entire world is now paying one and a half to two times more for gasoline, gas, and oil. And Americans are no exception.

As prices in America rise, it doesn't take much to guess who to hold responsible. The Republican Party has every chance of losing the elections badly. Naturally, this scenario is not what Trump wants, especially since, in the last year, with support from both chambers of Congress, he made decisions independently. Thus, it is Trump who needs to conclude the conflict with Iran as quickly as possible. But he needs to conclude it with a victory.

Exchange Rates 15.04.2026 analysis

As I have mentioned, I do not believe that Iran will abandon nuclear weapons or that a peace agreement will be reached between Iran and the U.S. I believe much more that at some point, Trump will announce a complete victory for the U.S. and order the American fleet to return to their permanent bases. At that point, the conflict could be considered shifted into a state of artificial coma. In other words, Trump needs to win the election, and after the election, he can start pressing Iran again, demanding the abandonment of nuclear weapons.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains in an upward trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, is in a corrective structure. The corrective wave set looks quite complete and can only take on a more complex, elongated form in one case—if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the U.S., Israel, and ALL other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, I believe that a new downward wave set may begin from the current positions. A failed attempt to break the 1.1824 mark may lead to a price retreat from the recent highs.

Exchange Rates 15.04.2026 analysis

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had assumed. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an extension in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not provoke a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound may rise to the levels of 1.3594 and 1.3698, corresponding to 61.8% and 76.1% Fibonacci levels. If a ceasefire is reached, the corrective segment of the trend may turn into an impulsive one. A failed attempt to break through the 1.3594 mark could cause prices to retreat from the reached peaks.

The Basic Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play back, as they often carry changes.
  2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
  3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026
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