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Yesterday, equity markets closed on a high note: the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 2.80%, and the Dow Jones advanced by 2.85%. Optimism was driven by hopes of a possible de-escalation between the United States and Iran, which investors expected could reduce risks to energy supplies and support the global economy.
Today, the picture changed: futures on US and European indices declined, while oil prices rose. The trigger was Tehran's statement that several terms of the agreement had been violated, which increased uncertainty and prompted investors to lock in profits and reduce risk exposure. At the same time, the rebound in oil signals persistent concerns that regional tensions could affect crude production and transport. Follow the link for more details.
The worst appears to be behind us: US equity indices jumped sharply on news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. About 400 of the 500 S&P 500 constituents closed in the green; only the energy sector lagged, reacting nervously to moves in Brent and WTI. The VIX fell substantially as investors again embraced a de-escalation narrative and sold fear faster than usual.
The S&P 500 rally, the longest since September, was driven not only by headlines but also by rapid short covering by hedge funds. Historical parallels are being drawn to the 1990s: after de-escalation and a drop in oil, the index rallied strongly. If the conflict indeed moves toward peace, US equities could have scope to extend their bullish run. Follow the link for more details.
Next week, the US Senate will again attempt to pass a resolution aimed at limiting further actions by Donald Trump without Congressional approval. Meanwhile, rising inflation in the US and a higher Fed funds rate have global implications: a large share of many countries' debt remains dollar-denominated, and the number of states facing debt distress is growing.
As for Iran, the negotiating picture is far from successful. Experts describe US and Iranian proposals as essentially mutually exclusive "manifestos of capitulation." Tehran insists on guarantees, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and transit fees, while Washington demands dismantling key nuclear programs, placing uranium under IAEA control, and ending missile activities and support for proxy groups. Against this backdrop, hours before his ultimatum expired, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Follow the link for more details.
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