08.04.202607:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on April 8? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, and none of them are important. Traders can only focus on the Eurozone retail sales report, but who is interested in Eurozone retail sales right now? Last night, it became known that a truce has been reached in the Middle East for two weeks, during which active negotiations are likely to take place to sign a peace agreement. Moreover, the parties continue to insist on completely opposing viewpoints. Iran has stated that the U.S. has accepted all conditions of the Iranian truce proposal, while Donald Trump reported that Iran agreed to open the Strait, indicating that there will be no new missile strikes in the near future.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Wednesday, the only notable item is the Federal Reserve's minutes; however, the market continues to ignore all factors not related to geopolitics. The Fed meeting took place three weeks ago, and since then, the market has largely ignored positions on central bank monetary policy, speeches by central bank representatives, and almost all macroeconomic data. Therefore, the Fed's minutes are irrelevant under the current circumstances.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3403-1.3407. We still do not see any grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency (taking into account all factors, not just geopolitics), and the improving geopolitical situation has already triggered a decline in the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.